maandag 16 februari 2009
The Scenario Planning Workshop by PORTAL hosted a panel of highly motivated fast thinkers who created four future worlds that project tomorrow's context of social / business networking and beyond. The two axis they chose in Phase 3 of the scenario planning exercise turned out to be connectivity and visibility. For the panel, connectivity was a measure of ICT, speed of information flows, infrastructure, travel and in general terms, freedom. Moving to the right of the horizontal axis strengthens these characteristics, to the left it weakens them. The vertical axis was called visibility and measured transparency, security, motives, scope, privacy and customization. Moving up as the axis increases magnifies the implications. The four quadrants created by the axis have the story telling power to create scenarios based on the combination of the definitions assigned to the axis. This process normally takes several days, however with the limited time at Twestival our talented participants were able to make a significant prognosis in an afternoon.
The names given to each quadrant summarize the general atmosphere and feeling of how social / business networking will evolve given the axis characteristics.
"Follow the Leader" is a future where iconic leaders, organizations and / or corporations have a greater manipulation power. A highly visible figurehead is able to herd unorganized masses where freedom of movement and expression are inhibited by authority figures. Polarity of income and opportunities emerge."Open Source" is a plurality of contexts, highly pro-active, customized and competitive. Outsourcing, 3-D printers and business models are pressured to innovate. Complexity will be managed by simple solutions and global power has less influence than local initiatives."Hidden Agenda" is a world without transparency. Increasing technological innovation empowers Tribes and interest groups. Ironically, both borders and collectivity increase as motives remain underground. "Secret Service" is like an archipelago landscape. Great and sinister minds can develop behind the scenes. Role- shifting becomes easier in both business and social contexts.
Scenario planning is dynamic; the observer of this model can use it as a positioning tool. Furthermore, its story-telling power needs constant retelling to stay ahead of the times. Twestival started a process and through this blog and supported platforms the future prognosis of social / business networking will continue. Where are there dangers to freedom? How will our bodies integrate technology? Will an oncoming recession give us more free time to think, rethink and network new futures? Twitterers, lets co-create new future contexts before someone else does it for us. Images, thoughts and comments are welcome.